OF LAW AND POLITICS
Ambassador Jaime S. Bautista
CHINA’S FOUR SECRETS
Chinese Ambassador Zhao Jianhua recently disclosed that China has four
secrets which have made it possible for China to rise and become a global
economic power: (1) good leaders; (2) good policies consistently followed over
a long-term period; (3) a hard working population; and (4) a peaceful and
secure environment.
The tensions in the South
China Sea poses a danger to the peaceful and secure environment that China
needs to continue with its dynamic economic growth. In particular, China needs peaceful relations
with the United States and its ASEAN neighbors to promote its ambitious Belt
and Road Initiative.
This initiative consists of
the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt to join China with Central Asia first
proposed by President Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan in September 2013, and the 21st
Maritime Silk Road to connect China with the ASEAN member countries, the South
Asian countries, and with Africa and Europe, which he proposed a month later in
Indonesia.
Eventually, the two new silk
roads are envisioned as a grand initiative to link China not only with the continents
of Eurasia and Africa but also the Americas up to Brazil, through trade,
investments, transport and energy infrastructure projects, tourism, education,
culture and other areas of cooperation. This
grand initiative is also planned as a mega development project for the
countries along the network.
This global enterprise is an
incentive for China to improve relations with its ASEAN maritime neighbors and
maintain peace and security. China
cannot ignore the strategic location in the South China Sea of the Philippines which
is also situated at the heart of the Archipelagic continent extending from Japan
to Indonesia and Papua New Guinea with the Philippines at the center. The envisioned new maritime silk road to link
China with Indonesia and Brazil will pass through the Philippines. Indeed, this is really the revival of the
galleon trade that made Manila the first global city, linking the different
continents of the world.
The perceived major threat to
peace in Asia, disturbing the peace and security that China needs to solidify
its economic gains, is its rivalry with the United States. This is discussed in an article entitled:
“The Thucydides Trap Discourse in China-US Relations” by Cai Cuthong contained in the same
July-August 2016 issue of the China International Studies
The article, published by the China Institute of International
Studies, one of the leading think tanks in China, explains that the “Thucydides
Trap” or the rivalry between a rising power (Athens) and the dominant hegemon
(Sparta) made the Peloponnesian war inevitable between these two city
states. Thucydides had noted that such a
competition mostly ends up with war.
The article reports that
Graham Allison, a Harvard professor, had proposed in his testimony to the
United States Senate Committee on Armed Services that “The Thucydides Trap has
been sprung in the Pacific.” Allison’s studies showed that in 12 of 16
cases in the past 500 years, when a rising power challenged a ruling power, the
outcome was war. The article further
notes that the “Thucydides Trap” has
suddenly become a popular concept in international relations in the West. China’s rise is perceived, according to the
article, as challenging the US predominance in Asia today and in the world in
the future and thus constitutes today’s
“Thucydides Trap”.
The article, however,
expresses the opinion that the concept of the
“Thucydides Trap” is not applicable to China-US relations. It is striking that the article gives the
rule of law as an important reason why the situation in the world today is
different from that of ancient Greece, observing
that “there were no
international organizations and international law as a kind of mechanism to
achieve international peace.” Indeed, these
play an important role in constraining interstate conflict as the article
points out.
It is interesting that the
article states that, “even though some people may question the actual
constraint force of international law and international organizations on major
countries, the US in particular, the collective security mechanism at least has
reinforced the moral constraint and increased the violation costs of
international profile and public opinion.”
Thus, the article shares the view that the rule of law also protects the
interests of major powers.
The article further reports
on the progressive development of international law, stating
that “the compulsory system
of international law has got more rigid with the emergence of the entities of
many international organizations. And
more and more terms embodying the idea of “direct application” arise in the
rules of international organizations.
Relevant legislation and arbitration begin to be characterized by
enforcement and rigidity.”
Finally, the article also
observes that “Although the rigidity of international law is not comparable
with that of domestic law, the international community is still able to exert
influence in indirect ways so as to realize the goal of its compulsion.” This is a perceptive insight on the value of
decisions and awards of international courts and arbitration tribunals, as
opposed to the dismissive attitude
giving little importance to their value on the ground that they are
unenforceable.
It is important that China’s
fourth secret for its successful emergence as a global economic power, namely
the necessity of a peaceful and secure environment, be kept in mind and supported
because China’s economy is one of the engines moving the global economy. Thus, the Philippine Council on Foreign
Relations delegation, composed of retired ambassadors and armed forces and
police generals, and members of the Academe and business, paid a visit to Beijing
last 13-16 September 2016, upon the invitation of the Chinese Ambassador.
Engagement with China,
including through track 2 diplomacy, combined with vigilant monitoring of
Chinese activities in the South China Sea, will serve to enhance our national
interests, promote friendship, and maintain peace and security.