Ambassador Jaime S.
Bautista, Doctor of laws
“Russia’s Pivot to New Asia’
With its own so-called “pivot from the West to the New
Asia”, Russia is both an economic power, with its huge energy and mineral
resources, and a military power second only to the United States, which can
serve as a counterweight to China and the United States. Over the long term, the Philippines can
establish interlocking economic interests with Russia and other countries as
additional/alternative security
guarantees.
During the Cold War, President Ferdinand Marcos made a
strategic decision to open diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union to resist
pressure from the United States. The
opening to socialist countries took place in stages. The first step was to open an embassy in
Bucharest as Romania was a communist country seeking an independent path in its
foreign policy. The second was to
recognize Chairman Mao Tze-tung’s government as the de jure government of China
before establishing diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union a year later. This opening to the Soviet Union paid a small
dividend for President Marcos. After the
result of the 1985 presidential election was proclaimed, the Soviet Ambassador
called on President Marcos while the Ambassadors of the European Union member
countries called on President Corazon Aquino.
The Philippines’ people power, the mother of peaceful revolutions,
intervened and was decisive in pulling down President Marcos from his seat of
power.
Russia’s shift of interest from the West to the East has
taken time. After the dissolution of
the Soviet Union, Russia needed support from the United States and Europe
because of its decision to replace its communist structure with a capitalist
system. However, the response from the
United States was disappointing. The
European Union signed a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Russia to
regulate their political and economic relations.
NATO likewise developed cooperative relations with Russia. In 1993, Russia proclaimed a new military
doctrine, implicitly acknowledging it was not a superpower. With its status as a regional power, Russia
signed the Partnership for Peace Program with NATO in 1994, and the agreement
creating the Russia-NATO Council in 2002.
This Council handles security issues and joint projects in several sectors:
fighting terrorism, military cooperation, cooperation on Afghanistan,
industrial cooperation, and non-proliferation.
A development further linking Russia with the West was the
informal arrangement referred to as the
Political 8 or G7+1 when the Group of 7, a forum of the wealthiest industrialized
democracies, invited Russia in 1994 to hold separate meetings with their
leaders, after the Group’s Summit Meetings.
Russia formally joined the Group in 1997, upon the invitation of the USA
and the UK, resulting in the formation of the G 8.
Russia’s concern during this earlier period was NATO. Russia’s energy was spent in preventing the
former satellite states in Eastern Europe from joining NATO and the EU. Russia was also busy keeping intact the Commonwealth
of Independent States, the loose federation of states which replaced the Soviet
Union.
The shift to the East has taken place in view of Russia’s
need to develop the economy of its Asian regions and stop the diminution of its
population in this region due to emigration for lack of employment
opportunities and the falling birth rate.
While being primarily focused in Europe, Russia had also
taken steps to protect its territory east of the Urals and secure its interests
in Central Asia. This region is
strategically important for Russia because it borders China, Iran, Afghanistan,
and is close to Pakistan. Towards this
objective, the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) and the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO) were established.
The EAEC seeks to build a single economic space among its members. Its original members were the Customs Union
of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan plus Kyrgystan and Tajikistan. Uzbekistan joined later.
The CSTO was created in 2002 to deepen military-political
cooperation among its members and provide national security on a collective
basis. It was formed by Armenia,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. Uzbekistan joined later but suspended its
membership in 2012. The CSTO serves to
keep the United States and other military Powers out of the CSTO region. Under
Article 7 of the CSTO Charter, member states shall consult each other and adopt
a decision on the stationing of groupings of forces in their territories and of
military facilities of States which are not members of the Organization.
Russia and the other CSTO’s members with borders with China (Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan) signed the “Treaty On Deepening Military Trust In
The Border Areas”, forming the Shanghai Five.
Russia’s Far Eastern region is thinly populated and has borders 4,300
kilometers long with China. The Group was renamed the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) after Uzbekistan was admitted in 2001. The SCO Charter, signed in 2002, sought to
build on the “Shanghai Spirit” of mutual trust, equality, consultation, respect
for different civilizations, and common prosperity. The SCO seeks to combat the three evils of
Terrorism, Extremism and Separatism, fight illegal narcotics, arms trafficking
and other criminal activities of a transnational character, and contend with
illegal migration.
The Shanghai Spirit facilitated the signing of the treaty
settling the demarcation of Russia’s long borders with China, paving the way
for close relations between Russia and China.
This was manifested with the creation of BRIC composed of Brazil,
Russia, India, and China, later renamed BRICS with the addition of South
Africa. Significantly, President Xi Jinping’s first foreign trip after assuming
his post was to Moscow. He said that the
close relations were based firstly, in a common belief in a multipolar world
and secondly, in sharing a common interpretation of international law. The first basis can be read as sharing the
objective of reducing the influence of the superpower. The second emphasizes the principles of equality,
mutual respect and non-interference.
President Vladimir Putin said that Russia’s new relations
with China, (and its shift to the New Asia) is based on three factors: there is no longer any territorial issues
with China; Russia is not threatened by China’s economic success, and on the
contrary, Russia’s economic sail would benefit from the wind of China’s
economy; and lastly, China has not given any signs of wishing to dominate.
Indeed, Russia sees itself as a Great Power with a proud
history. Although lagging behind in
economic development, Russia is a greater military power than China and is a
center of influence, with veto power in the UN Security Council. It has the largest stockpile of nuclear
weapons, the second largest fleet of ballistic missile weapons and the only
country, apart from the USA, with modern strategic bomber force. Its surface
navy and air force are among the largest in the world. Russia’s official military spending was reported as
the third largest in the world.
An important element in strengthening Russia’s international
position, according to Foreign Minister Sergei V. Lavrov, is to increase
Russia’s presence in the Asia Pacific region.
He said that Russia has “strategic relations” with China, India and
Vietnam, and “multidimensional ties with Japan, South Korea, the ASEAN
countries, and other countries in the Asia Pacific region. Russia is a Dialogue Partner of ASEAN and a
member of the East Asia Summit (ASEAN plus 8).
Given that Russia has strategic relations with both China
and Vietnam, it is interesting that Russia has not recognized China’s
exaggerated claim over the South China Sea represented by the nine-dash
line. Vietnam has conflicting claim to
the Paracel and the Spratly Islands. On
the other hand, it is noteworthy that China has not recognized the independence
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which seceded from Georgia after the recent
Russia- Georgia conflict.
Russia’s presence in
Asia and the Pacific is likewise manifested by its membership in ASEM and
APEC. ASEM is an informal process of
dialogue and cooperation between the two regions of Asia and Europe, addressing
political, economic and cultural issues.
It now brings together 51 partners: 10 ASEAN member states, ten Asian
countries and the ASEAN Secretariat, on the one hand, and 27 European Union
member states, 2 European countries, and the European Commission, on the
other. As a uniquely Eurasian country,
Russia had the option to join ASEM either as a European or an Asian
country. Russia joined ASEM in 2010 as
an Asian country, symbolic of a shift to the New Asia.
It is through APEC that Russia recently projected its
presence in Asia Pacific, playing host at last year’s APEC Summit at
Vladivostok. The topics that the Summit
focused on were: (1) Trade and Investment Liberalization; (2) Regional Economic
Integration; (3) Strengthening Food Security; and (4) Intensive Cooperation to
Foster Innovative Growth.
In his address to the Federal Duma last December, President
Putin spoke of food security, noting that Russia has 55 percent of the world’s
arable land. He said that Russia should
strive to be self sufficient in all major types of food production and that
Russia should become the world’s largest food producer. In the same address, he also stressed that a
priority for Russia would be improving the nation’s healthcare.
The areas of cooperation between the Philippines and Russia
have been in tourism, gas and oil, shipping, aviation, agricultural products, cultural
and sports cooperation, among others. The Philippines has entered into a labor
agreement with Russia which needs more health-workers. There are now more
chartered flights arriving in the Philippines from Russia. Gazprom, the Russian oil and gas giant, has
expressed interest in exploiting gas reserves in the Philippines to manufacture
liquefied natural gas. There is interest
on the part of Russia to buy coffee. Over
the long term, although the volume of trade with Russia is low at a little over
US$1 billion, the prospects for increasing and multiplying the volume of trade
and the areas for bilateral cooperation are promising, given that there are cordial
relations between the Philippines and Russia without any friction.
No comments:
Post a Comment